Variance is a term used to describe how outcomes are distributed over time in a pokie. This page provides an informational explanation of variance and its role in the design of slot-style games.
What variance describes
Variance describes the balance between how often outcomes occur and how large those outcomes may be. It focuses on the distribution pattern of results rather than individual spins.
In general terms:
- Lower variance is associated with smaller outcomes occurring more frequently
- Higher variance is associated with outcomes occurring less often but potentially being larger
Variance looks at long-term behaviour, not short sessions.
Variance and outcome patterns
Variance does not determine whether a game will produce a win on a specific spin. Instead, it shapes the overall pattern of results across many spins.
Typical variance profiles include:
- Low variance: steady, smaller outcomes over time
- Medium variance: a mix of smaller and occasional larger outcomes
- High variance: longer gaps between outcomes with larger swings when they occur
These profiles influence how a game feels over extended play without predicting short-term results.
Relationship to volatility and hit frequency
Variance is closely related to volatility and hit frequency, but each metric highlights a different aspect of game behaviour.
Key distinctions:
- Variance: distribution pattern of outcome sizes over time
- Volatility: practical expression of variance in gameplay behaviour
- Hit frequency: how often any winning outcome occurs
A game may share similar variance with another but differ in hit frequency or perceived volatility.
How variance is defined in game design
Variance is defined during development and embedded into the game’s mathematical model. It is influenced by factors such as symbol probabilities, paytable values, and feature rules.
Important characteristics:
- Fixed within the game logic
- Does not adapt to player behaviour
- Does not change during a session
- Applies consistently across all plays of the same game
Technical overview
| Aspect | Description |
|---|---|
| Variance | Outcome distribution over time |
| Primary focus | Balance of frequency and size of outcomes |
| Related metrics | Volatility, hit frequency |
| Defined during development | Yes |
| Changes during play | No |
| Influenced by player behaviour | No |
What you can do next
- Learn how volatility is derived from variance
- Read how hit frequency affects win occurrence
- Explore how payout structures shape variance profiles
- Return to the pokies section for more informational content
Informational disclaimer
PokiesHub Australia does not provide access to games and does not promote gambling activity. This information is intended solely to explain how variance is used as a descriptive concept in pokies design within the Australian gaming industry.