Expected value is a mathematical concept used to describe the average outcome of a random process over a very large number of trials. In the context of pokies, expected value helps explain how results behave over time, rather than what happens in any single spin or session.
This article explains what expected value means for pokies, how it relates to game design, and why it should not be confused with short-term outcomes.
What expected value means in pokies
Expected value represents the average amount a player can expect to win or lose per unit wagered over the long run. It is not a prediction of individual results, but a statistical average calculated across many spins.
In pokies, expected value is typically negative for players. This reflects the built-in house edge designed into the game.
Expected value and long-term outcomes
Over a very large number of spins, actual results tend to move closer to the expected value. This does not mean results become predictable, but that averages stabilise as sample size increases.
Short sequences of play can deviate significantly from expected value. Wins, losses, and streaks can occur naturally without contradicting the underlying mathematics.
Relationship between expected value and RTP
Expected value is closely related to return to player, which expresses the percentage of wagers returned to players over time. A game with a higher return to player has a less negative expected value, but it still remains negative in the long run.
Both concepts describe long-term averages rather than guarantees.
Why expected value does not predict sessions
Expected value does not indicate what will happen in a single session or on a particular day. A short playing period may result in outcomes far above or below the expected value without implying that the game has changed behaviour.
This distinction is often misunderstood and contributes to incorrect assumptions about fairness or timing.
Common misunderstandings about expected value
Several misconceptions arise around this concept:
- Expected value predicts future results
- Losses increase the chance of future wins
- Short sessions can reliably overcome long-term averages
- Changing bet size alters the expected value of the game
These interpretations do not align with how expected value functions mathematically.
Why expected value matters for understanding pokies
Understanding expected value helps clarify why pokies behave consistently over time despite appearing unpredictable in the short term. It explains why individual outcomes vary widely while long-term averages remain stable.
Expected value is a descriptive tool for understanding game behaviour, not a strategy or a guarantee.
Informational disclaimer
PokiesHub Australia is an informational project. We do not operate gambling services, accept deposits, or provide access to electronic gaming machines.
This content is provided for educational purposes only and is intended to explain gambling mathematics in an Australian informational context.